Another superb analysis of the current state of affairs in the Middle East. Thank you Mouin Rabbani (Mr Cool).
There are many developments that give rise to optimism. I take note of all the seemingly disparate occurrences and hope that its confluence leads to an end to the Palestinian genocide even though Mouin reflects that it may continue for an indeterminate time. The New York Mayoral election (Mamdani) and the Dutch elections are especially interesting developments and I look forward to watching the outcomes and how it would influence the Israeli war on Palestine. As Mouin however laments, will change “be on time or will it be too late”.
Fantastic interview on the geological impact of a second order militia defending a postage stamp Gaza, the movement defending Lebanon, and conventional military states in Yemen and Iran giving as good as they get to force the terms of ceasefire and emerge as leading examples for particularly Egypt of how sanctioned regimes have thrived to defend and uphold their sovereignty in the face of naked colonial aggression.
Making sense of the events and players in West Asia isn’t a simple task, and I want to again applaud BettBeat for pressing the pursuit of truth which is the first casualty in war.
Before listening to Rabbani, I watched two Jamarl Thomas podcasts, one with Alex Krainer, the latter with Laith Marouf.
Marouf is an Arab Muslim out of Canada, and he has some insights to Iran that got my attention. Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, apart from being a cardiac surgeon, is the son of an Iranian-Azerbaijani father, and an Iranian-Kurdish mother. This is significant because Azerbaijan borders Iran and has been a hostile neighbor. Azerbaijan has been a constant supplier of oil to Israel throughout the genocide, and the recent war it waged against Iran. Part of Iran’s war strategy is to retain relationships with recognized threats. That may help to explain Iran’s efforts to gain a foothold, a scintilla of trust in the West. And Alex Krainer thinks that Iran’s efforts will probably yield constructive results. More on that later.
On the subject of Iran’s rejection of Russia’s repeated offers to provide military support, Marouf believes there is a historic precedent that still stands. The Iranians, and many other Muslim countries see Russia’s restraint vs NATO, and its decisions not to expand the conflict, aren’t totally guided by self interest. Russia under Putin, wants to be a friend and stalwart leader of white, Christian nationalists. This makes Iran and other Muslims skeptical about Russia. Also, in the 1973 war in Syria, the Syrians charged that Russia reneged on a delivery of specific weapons, which sealed the fate of the Syrians. There’s also the fact that Putin has expressed concern for the fate of two million Russian speaking residents in Israel. I didn’t know this, but the USSR recognized the state of Israel before the Americans did. So whereas I judged Iran to be too smitten by Western liberal lies, and concluded that it ought to go all in with Russia , Iran may be the more realistic partner. Marouf believes that regarding Iran, China has been historically more transparent than Russia.
Now to Krainer. One point that I really respect about his commentary, he focuses primarily on power and what is done to gain it, preserve it, and exert it. He begins with a credible assertion, followed by a question: When Israel was on the verge of being undeniably defeated, the American president was predictably threatening and bombastic. He announced that B-52 bomber jets would obliterate the Iranian nuclear facilities, and, according to Krainer, he specifically told the Iranians, with enough lead time for them to remove the enriched uranium before the attack. Likewise, when Iran retaliated, the details were shared with the Americans well in advance so there were no American personnel at risk, and the damage was trivial. Krainer poses the obvious question: What does this signify?
Without sounding like a Trump apologist, Krainer postulates that Trump may be done with Israel, which is an expensive dependent. He’s surrounded by Zionists, even his son-in-law is one, so he was compelled to make a show of support, but it wasn’t very sincere. Krainer sees this as consistent with Trump’s long held desire to free the USG of costly, divisive wars, and alliances that do nothing for it. In both Ukraine and West Asia, the Zionist pressure is 24/7, so Trump has little to no unilateral leverage. He gained considerable leverage by the Israeli sneak attack on Iran, which many Americans found abhorrent, and the near destruction of Israel, which many Americans saw as justly earned. Krainer doesn’t think that Israel will continue to be propped up by American unconditional support. If that happens, Trump may need enhanced security, and the domestic political climate could approach hysteria. But, it appears there would be substantial support to forget Israel, and ignore AIPAC. If anything close to that actually happens, Trump may have hardcore leftists defending him. If the HTS in what used to be Syria, ramp up the killing of non-Muslims, Krainer believes that the US support for the Kurds in that region could be in jeopardy. Russia will be aligned with Iran, and the Americans don’t want to take either of them on. So apparently big changes coming soon.
Another superb analysis of the current state of affairs in the Middle East. Thank you Mouin Rabbani (Mr Cool).
There are many developments that give rise to optimism. I take note of all the seemingly disparate occurrences and hope that its confluence leads to an end to the Palestinian genocide even though Mouin reflects that it may continue for an indeterminate time. The New York Mayoral election (Mamdani) and the Dutch elections are especially interesting developments and I look forward to watching the outcomes and how it would influence the Israeli war on Palestine. As Mouin however laments, will change “be on time or will it be too late”.
Fantastic interview on the geological impact of a second order militia defending a postage stamp Gaza, the movement defending Lebanon, and conventional military states in Yemen and Iran giving as good as they get to force the terms of ceasefire and emerge as leading examples for particularly Egypt of how sanctioned regimes have thrived to defend and uphold their sovereignty in the face of naked colonial aggression.
Making sense of the events and players in West Asia isn’t a simple task, and I want to again applaud BettBeat for pressing the pursuit of truth which is the first casualty in war.
Before listening to Rabbani, I watched two Jamarl Thomas podcasts, one with Alex Krainer, the latter with Laith Marouf.
Marouf is an Arab Muslim out of Canada, and he has some insights to Iran that got my attention. Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, apart from being a cardiac surgeon, is the son of an Iranian-Azerbaijani father, and an Iranian-Kurdish mother. This is significant because Azerbaijan borders Iran and has been a hostile neighbor. Azerbaijan has been a constant supplier of oil to Israel throughout the genocide, and the recent war it waged against Iran. Part of Iran’s war strategy is to retain relationships with recognized threats. That may help to explain Iran’s efforts to gain a foothold, a scintilla of trust in the West. And Alex Krainer thinks that Iran’s efforts will probably yield constructive results. More on that later.
On the subject of Iran’s rejection of Russia’s repeated offers to provide military support, Marouf believes there is a historic precedent that still stands. The Iranians, and many other Muslim countries see Russia’s restraint vs NATO, and its decisions not to expand the conflict, aren’t totally guided by self interest. Russia under Putin, wants to be a friend and stalwart leader of white, Christian nationalists. This makes Iran and other Muslims skeptical about Russia. Also, in the 1973 war in Syria, the Syrians charged that Russia reneged on a delivery of specific weapons, which sealed the fate of the Syrians. There’s also the fact that Putin has expressed concern for the fate of two million Russian speaking residents in Israel. I didn’t know this, but the USSR recognized the state of Israel before the Americans did. So whereas I judged Iran to be too smitten by Western liberal lies, and concluded that it ought to go all in with Russia , Iran may be the more realistic partner. Marouf believes that regarding Iran, China has been historically more transparent than Russia.
Now to Krainer. One point that I really respect about his commentary, he focuses primarily on power and what is done to gain it, preserve it, and exert it. He begins with a credible assertion, followed by a question: When Israel was on the verge of being undeniably defeated, the American president was predictably threatening and bombastic. He announced that B-52 bomber jets would obliterate the Iranian nuclear facilities, and, according to Krainer, he specifically told the Iranians, with enough lead time for them to remove the enriched uranium before the attack. Likewise, when Iran retaliated, the details were shared with the Americans well in advance so there were no American personnel at risk, and the damage was trivial. Krainer poses the obvious question: What does this signify?
Without sounding like a Trump apologist, Krainer postulates that Trump may be done with Israel, which is an expensive dependent. He’s surrounded by Zionists, even his son-in-law is one, so he was compelled to make a show of support, but it wasn’t very sincere. Krainer sees this as consistent with Trump’s long held desire to free the USG of costly, divisive wars, and alliances that do nothing for it. In both Ukraine and West Asia, the Zionist pressure is 24/7, so Trump has little to no unilateral leverage. He gained considerable leverage by the Israeli sneak attack on Iran, which many Americans found abhorrent, and the near destruction of Israel, which many Americans saw as justly earned. Krainer doesn’t think that Israel will continue to be propped up by American unconditional support. If that happens, Trump may need enhanced security, and the domestic political climate could approach hysteria. But, it appears there would be substantial support to forget Israel, and ignore AIPAC. If anything close to that actually happens, Trump may have hardcore leftists defending him. If the HTS in what used to be Syria, ramp up the killing of non-Muslims, Krainer believes that the US support for the Kurds in that region could be in jeopardy. Russia will be aligned with Iran, and the Americans don’t want to take either of them on. So apparently big changes coming soon.
Sorry for this long-winded post.
I can’t listen to Krainer. The man is a phony, still saying that Trump is a peace loving candidate, and that the “globalists” are out to get him.
I always wonder why these older white men suddenly dominate my algorithms. Ritter is another one.
Laith Marouf is another story, I love listening to him.
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